报告题目：The Surprisingly Stagnant Export Upgrading in Northeast China: Evidence from VAT Reform
报 告 人：李雨浓
China's 2004 value-added tax (VAT) pilot reform introduces a permanent 17% tax credit for fixed investment in manufacturing industries in the Northeast region. Previous studies find the tax credit has positive effects at firm level, e.g., more fixed investment and higher productivity. This paper, however, finds a negative structural effect, i.e., the VAT pilot reform leads to a reduction in export sophistication of Northeast cities relative to other cities in China with a difference-in-difference estimation and the result holds for a battery of robustness checks. The reduction in export sophistication occurs mostly in intensive margin and processing trade and it is more significant for domestic non-SOEs. The paper also confirms a resource-reallocation effect, i.e., capital, labor, and intermediate inputs are directed towards relatively less sophisticated industries. Our findings imply that a general tax credit for fixed investment may have undesirable structural effect and it should be accompanied with more consultation and guidance.
撰稿：王傑 審核：齊鷹飛 單位：高等經濟研究院